Albatrisk · Proactive Risk Management
Proactive risk management, grounded in science.
Albatrisk turns decades of research on extreme events into operational tools — for financial markets, natural hazards, corporate information flows and nuclear safety.
Our solutions
Four domains, one discipline: anticipate before it is too late
One scientific approach, four domains
Extreme events have precursors. We find them.
Bubbles, ruptures, floods and accidents share a signature: stress accumulates quietly, warning signs are dismissed, and the system tips. Our methods — developed over twenty years at ETH Zurich and now at Albatrisk — are built to read those signs early, across very different systems.
Precursor and critical-phenomena models
Log-periodic power-law singularities, dragon-king statistics and precursor analysis quantify when a system is approaching a critical point — whether that system is a stock index, a fault, a slope or a reactor fleet.
From prediction to prevention
A forecast is only useful if it changes a decision. We translate risk windows into prioritised actions, budgets and communication — and we pay particular attention to the information that organisations tend to conceal or soften.
Institutional-grade data and reporting
Curated databases, documented methods and reproducible reports, built for investment committees, cantonal administrations, boards and regulators.
Who we work with
Built for the people who carry the risk
Financial institutions and investors
Asset managers, family offices and risk teams using the Financial Crisis Observatory to time bubbles and regime changes.
Cantons, States and public agencies
Authorities responsible for hazard prevention, civil protection and long-term mitigation budgets.
Corporations and supply chains
Procurement, compliance and risk functions that need to see what their business network is not telling them.
Nuclear operators, regulators and researchers
Organisations learning from operating experience with the ETHZ Curated Nuclear Events Database and generic PSA models.
Research heritage
Built on two decades of published research
Led by Professor Didier Sornette, our team has produced numerous influential books and academic articles on man-made catastrophes, financial crises and the predictability of extreme events.
Leadership
The team
Jaufray Sornette
Executive Director
(MBA, ETH Zurich) oversees operations and business development, focusing on strategic partnerships. Software architect and business software analyst.
Sergej Hajdin
Technical Director
Lead Developer of compliance technologies in the world of finance, senior software Engineer & software architect.
Didier Sornette
Risk Research Director
Professor Emeritus of Entrepreneurial Risks at ETH Zurich and dean of the Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X) at SUSTech.
Ke Wu
Lead Risk Expert
Research Associate Professor at the Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), SUSTech, Shenzhen, China.