02 · Natural Hazards
Early-warning science for the physical world
We apply the same family of precursor and extreme-event models that power our financial indicators to earthquakes, floods, landslides, storms and wildfire — so public authorities can anticipate, prioritise and budget before disaster strikes.
Why precursors matter
Disasters are rarely surprises. They are warnings that went unread.
Seismic stress, saturated slopes, swollen rivers and dry forests all build up before they release. Our team has spent two decades developing methods that detect this build-up — from time-to-failure models for earthquakes to the statistics of dragon-kings, the extreme events that dominate losses. Albatrisk brings these methods to the institutions that have to act on them.
Precursor analysis
Statistical detection of the events that precede a rupture, used for earthquakes, slopes and industrial systems alike.
Extreme-value statistics & dragon-kings
Beyond power laws: identifying the outliers that do not fit the distribution and cause most of the damage.
Critical phenomena & time-to-failure
Models of accelerating dynamics that estimate the approach of a critical point and its uncertainty.
Multi-hazard & compound scenarios
Storm-on-flood, rain-on-snow, fire-after-drought: hazards that interact are modelled together.
Hazard by hazard
What we model, and what you get
Earthquakes
Seismic hazard is the archetype of a critical phenomenon: stress accumulates silently until rupture. Our research lineage in earthquake forecasting — from time-to-failure models to precursor statistics — informs probabilistic assessments of where and when seismic risk is elevated.
What we work with
- Seismic catalogues and regional fault models
- Building stock, exposure and vulnerability data
- National and cantonal hazard and risk models
What you get
- Probabilistic risk windows and ranked exposure maps
- Scenario losses for buildings, infrastructure and population
- Prioritised mitigation and retrofit options
Floods
Floods combine slow-moving drivers — land use, climate trends, river management — with sudden triggers. We model the full loss distribution, including the rare extremes that dominate damage, rather than the average year.
What we work with
- Hydrological records and precipitation extremes
- Terrain, land-use and drainage data
- Asset and infrastructure exposure
What you get
- Return-period estimates with honest uncertainty bands
- Exposure and loss maps by municipality or district
- Cost–benefit of protection and retention measures
Landslides & rockfall
Slope failures are precursor-rich: creep, micro-events and rainfall thresholds precede the main rupture. Precursor statistics turn monitoring data into early warnings with quantified lead times.
What we work with
- Displacement and monitoring time series
- Rainfall, snowmelt and geological data
- Exposure along roads, rail lines and settlements
What you get
- Threshold-based early-warning indicators
- Susceptibility and risk maps
- Closure and evacuation decision support
Storms
Windstorms, hail and convective events are increasingly costly. We quantify the tail of the loss distribution and the compounding of storms with floods and landslides.
What we work with
- Reanalysis and climate model data
- Historical loss records
- Roof, forest and infrastructure exposure
What you get
- Tail-risk estimates and compound-event scenarios
- Priority maps for protection investment
- Communication-ready risk briefs
Wildfire
Fire weather, fuel load and ignition patterns create regime shifts in wildfire risk. We track leading indicators so that prevention resources move before the season peaks.
What we work with
- Fuel, vegetation and drought indices
- Weather forecasts and climatology
- Wildland–urban interface exposure
What you get
- Seasonal and weekly risk outlooks
- Asset-level exposure prioritisation
- Prevention and response planning support
For Cantons, States & public agencies
Decision support for the authorities that carry the risk
We have started working with Cantons and States on proactive natural-hazard risk management. References are available on request.
Hazard prioritisation
A consistent, quantitative ranking of hazards and exposed assets across the territory.
Budget and cost–benefit support
Which mitigation measures buy the most risk reduction per franc or dollar — with uncertainty made explicit.
Early-warning indicators
Precursor-based indicators and dashboards that tell operations teams when a hazard regime is shifting.
Scenario workshops
Structured exercises with civil protection, infrastructure operators and political decision-makers.
Independent review
A second opinion on existing hazard maps, models and emergency plans.
Risk communication
Clear, honest communication of probabilities — avoiding the softened or concealed information that precedes so many man-made catastrophes.
How an engagement works
From first question to operational use
Scoping
Which hazards, which territory, which decisions. We define the questions the analysis must answer.
Data
We assemble the hazard, exposure and monitoring data you already have and identify the gaps that matter.
Modelling
Precursor, extreme-value and scenario models calibrated to your territory, with documented assumptions.
Operational handover
Indicators, maps and briefs integrated into your planning and emergency processes, with training for your teams.